Pacific Freeze » Russia

Can Japan, Russia Transform Asia?

erico_yu — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 23:03:28 +0000

Posted on Dec 29th

The shadow of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s death hangs over Northeast Asia as leaders work to reassure each other of cooperation to ensure stability in the uncertain transition ahead. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak spoke by telephone with Japan’s Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko, whom just a day or two earlier he had been berating for failure to act on the “comfort women” issue. Lee also spoke with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, whose failure to criticize the North’s 2010 sinking of the Cheonan had left a bad aftertaste in South Korea. But these efforts at developing a coherent strategy were taking place against the backdrop of a China and United States that are still developing their own responses – responses that could lead to further polarization in the region.

And it’s this last reality that could cause increasing frustration among other states that also consider themselves great powers – Japan and Russia. Polarization has advanced relentlessly since the end of the Cold War, and in place of Japan’s cherished dream of “returning to Asia” as its leader, Tokyo now looks in the 2010s to have little choice but to become more deeply enmeshed in the U.S. alliance system. Russia’s dashed expectations are even more strongly felt; Boris Yeltsin’s Atlanticism and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s newly declared “Eurasian Community” have proven to have little substance in the face of increasingly one-sided Russian dependence on China’s divisiveness.

To read the whole article the Diplomat

Kim Jong-Il’s death adds to uncertainty over Russia-Korea gas pipeline

erico_yu — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 17:57:47 +0000

Posted on Dec 21st

The death of North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il over the weekend, and the uncertainty surrounding the transition of power to his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, has raised new questions about a project to pipe natural gas from Russia across the secretive state to its southern neighbor.

Since the Monday announcement of Kim’s death, South Korean officials and government agencies have been focused on what impact it will have on financial markets and political and commercial negotiations.

Officials at the South Korean Ministry of Knowledge Economy, responsible for energy, industry and commerce, and state-owned Korea Gas, however, declined to comment on the pipeline project.

Russian gas giant Gazprom and South Korea’s Kogas first agreed to a 30-year supply of up to 10 billion cubic meters/year of Russian gas in 2008, with the startup of supplies marked for 2015.

Both Gazprom and Kogas saw a pipeline that runs across North Korea as the preferred delivery option. Talks, however, stalled over North Korea’s controversial nuclear program.

To read the whole article at Platts

Russia’s NATO envoy to visit China, Iran over missile defense

erico_yu — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 19:48:14 +0000

Posted on Nov 30th

Russian envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin will visit China and Iran in mid-January to discuss a U.S.-backed global missile defense network.

“We are planning to visit both Beijing and Tehran soon under the Russian president’s directive, to discuss the planned deployment of a global missile defense network,” Rogozin said during a roundtable meeting at the lower house of the Russian parliament.

Rogozin said he would meet with Foreign Ministry and General Staff officials in China, and hold talks with the head of the Supreme National Security Council and diplomats in Iran.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev outlined on Wednesday a series of possible “appropriate measures” if missile defense talks between Moscow and Washington result in failure, including the deployment of “advanced offensive weapon systems” targeting the European component of the missile defense network.

To read the whole article at the RIA Novosti

Russia Refuses to Sell Arresters for Chinese Carrier

erico_yu — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 16:21:32 +0000

Posted on Nov 28th

In 2007 news agency Kanwa exclusively reported from St. Petersburg that China would buy 4 arresters designed by Marine Engineering Research Institute and made by Proletarsky Zavod plant which produces all Russian arresters and arresting hooks. Earlier on, China had contacts with this plant purchasing constituent parts for Project 956E/EM destroyers.

Kanwa reported referring to a source in the plant that the Chinese had visited it many times and declared intentions to purchase at least 4 arresters (the source used the term “purchase”). The talks took place in the office of Rosoboronexport; negotiators ofProletarsky Zavod presented their production, and the Chinese requested for technical information.

In 2011 the authoritative source told to Kanwa reporter that the negotiations were facing unexpected problems – Russian defense industry’s authorities had decided not to sell arresters for China.

To read the whole article at the RusNavy.com

Why Russia Needs Asia Master Plan

erico_yu — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 17:44:15 +0000

Posted on Nov 17th

The Asia-Pacific region is seen by most as the world’s new center of gravity. But with the Eurasian giant’s significant presence in the Far East, the emerging new architecture among Asian powers has prompted questions about Russia’s role in the region.

The mutual threat perceptions between Russia and other Asian nations have certainly altered over the course of 20 years since the collapse of communism, and Russia is now widely recognized as a nonthreatening great power with global significance. However, regional analysts are still skeptical over the degree to which Russia’s vested interests lie in Asia, and whether these interests are compatible with those of other regional players.

For a start, Russian assessments from 1997 suggested that China, not the United States, posed the greatest threat to Russia’s interests and allies. Indeed, leading Russian scholars of international relations such as Alexei Arbatov predicted that over the next five to 20 years, Russia should carefully watch China’s expansionism toward Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as Central Asia. Such anxieties have, however, largely dissipated in light of increased confidence-building efforts that led to the creation of a formal regional body, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2001.

Still, a notable exception to the usually non-threatening views of China emerged in 2009, when Russian Army Gen. Nikolai Makarov suggested that China and NATO “are the most dangerous of our geopolitical rivals.”

To read the whole article at the Diplomat

Russia welcomes Japanese investors for joint development of Kuril Islands – Medvedev

erico_yu — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 17:49:25 +0000

Nov 11th

Russia has invited Japanese investors for joint development of the Kuril Islands, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday.

“We have repeatedly told our Japanese colleagues to come, invest, carry out business there, and Japanese nationals will work there. This is precisely the joint exploitation of these islands,” Medvedev said.

The row over the islands, which are known as the Northern Territories in Japan, has prevented the two countries from signing a formal peace treaty since the end of World War II.

“But they occupy a different position. They say, first you make the decision [on the issue of Kuril Islands], and then we’ll invest,” Medved said. “That’s not the way it works,” he added.

The president expressed confidence that the development program of the South Kurils will be fully carried out. “I’m sure we create everything, kindergartens, and schools, and two airports will now open on Kunashir and Iturup,” he said.

To read the whole article at the RIA Novosti

Russia Expects N.Korea to Collapse by 2020

erico_yu — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 19:53:50 +0000

Posted on Nov 4th

The Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russia’s foremost national policy think tank, takes the imminent collapse of the North Korean regime as a given in a special report published recently. IMEMO concludes that Korean reunification led by South Korea coincides with Russia’s national interests.

IMEMO spent years to prepare the report, which is part of the Russian government’s 20-year master plan and was published in September.

The 480-page special report obtained by the Chosun Ilbo has five pages referring to the Korean Peninsula. It says the regime’s collapse is “accelerating” and that although reunification may not be fully achieved, the two Koreas will take “actual steps” toward reunification in the next two decades.

IMEMO believes the 2012-2020 transfer of power from North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his son Jong-un will trigger the collapse of the North. The leadership crisis will lead to a power struggle between “bureaucrats” with foreign business connections and “military and security officials” with no outside links, the report said.

To read the whole article at The Chosun Ilbo

US report accuses China, Russia of cyber-espionage to help build their own economies

erico_yu — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 19:43:59 +0000

Posted on Nov 4th

WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence officials accused China and Russia on Thursday of systematically stealing American high-tech data for their own national economic gain.

It was the most forceful and detailed public airing of U.S. allegations after years of private complaints. U.S. officials and cybersecurity experts said the U.S. must openly confront China and Russia in a broad diplomatic push to combat cyberattacks that are on the rise and represent a “persistent threat to U.S. economic security.”

But experts said solving the problem won’t be easy.

In a report released Thursday, U.S. intelligence agencies said “the governments of China and Russia will remain aggressive and capable collectors of sensitive U.S. economic information and technologies, particularly in cyberspace.”

To read the whole article at The Washington Post

Nuclear powers plan weapons spending spree, report finds

erico_yu — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 13:12:31 +0000

Posted on Nov 3rd

The world’s nuclear powers are planning to spend hundreds of billions of pounds modernising and upgrading weapons warheads and delivery systems over the next decade, according to an authoritative report published on Monday.

Despite government budget pressures and international rhetoric about disarmament, evidence points to a new and dangerous “era of nuclear weapons”, the report for the British American Security Information Council (Basic) warns. It says the US will spend $700bn (£434bn) on the nuclear weapons industry over the next decade, while Russia will spend at least $70bn on delivery systems alone. Other countries including China, India, Israel, France and Pakistan are expected to devote formidable sums on tactical and strategic missile systems.

For several countries, including Russia, Pakistan, Israel and France, nuclear weapons are being assigned roles that go well beyond deterrence, says the report. In Russia and Pakistan, it warns, nuclear weapons are assigned “war-fighting roles in military planning”.

The report is the first in a series of papers for the Trident Commission, an independent cross-party initiative set up by Basic. Its leading members include former Conservative defence secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind, former Liberal Democrat leader and defence spokesman Sir Menzies Campbell and former Labour defence secretary Lord Browne.

To read the whole article at the Guardian

World’s nuclear arsenals growing, think-tank warns

erico_yu — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 12:34:43 +0000

Posted on Nov 2nd

BRUSSELS - The world is heading for “a new era of global nuclear force modernisation and growth” despite anti-proliferation rhetoric in the US and EU, a new study says.

The survey by the London and Washington-based think-tank, the British American Security Information Council (Basic), notes that every one of the world’s nine nuclear powers is currently in the middle of a shopping spree.

The US, which already has 8,500 warheads, plans to spend $700 billion on its nuclear capability in the next 10 years. Around $200 billion will go on modernising delivery systems and warhead production. Part will go on a fleet of 12 new nuclear submarines and long-range air-launched missiles.

The other big player, Russia, which has around 11,500 warheads, plans to spend $70 billion by 2020. It aims to double the number of ballistic missiles it makes each year by investing $500 million in its Votkinsk factory. It is also buying eight new submarines, developing a strategic missile capable of carrying 10 warheads and working on a new long-range stealth bomber.

To read the whole article at the EU observer.com